The dystopian thriller “Civil War” has been the No. 1 film at the U.S. box office for the last two weekends. But viewers, liberals and conservatives alike, should be aware that Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s propagandists are hoping that a second American Civil War actually happens.
After the House approved the $61 billion Ukraine aid package on Saturday, the hawkish former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who is the deputy chairman of Russia’s security council, wrote on Telegram: “I cannot with all sincerity not wish the United States to plunge into a new civil war as quickly as possible.”
And this is just the tip of the iceberg as the American Civil war meme has been a recurring theme in Russian propaganda for years.
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Just watch this clip from Russian TV from September 2023 when Putin’s propagandists discussed the Republican primary campaign and the presidential election. Political analyst Andrey Sidorov referred to their favorite candidate as “the eternal President Trump.”
And then the show’s host Vladimir Solovyov said the turmoil surrounding the 2024 campaign signaled that “America is on the verge of a civil war” and that if “they get tough on Trump, who knows how it will end,” referring to the criminal indictments against Donald Trump.
“If a Black militia came out with their weapons, even the National Guard wouldn’t be able to contain it, everything will be decided with a civil war,” opined Dmitry Drobnitsky, another pundit.
And then Solovyov chimed in with “and we will help.”
And in this video, Sergey Markov, a former Putin adviser, said his New Year’s wish is for a civil war in the U.S. because it would mean the “civil war” in Ukraine would end in a week (1:40 mark).
In the film “Civil War,” British director-writer Alex Garland deliberately obfuscates how the American Civil War started and the politics of the war. All we know is that secessionists from 19 states are fighting a fascist president (played by Nick Offerman) who has violated the Constitution by serving a third term and has abolished the FBI. The president has also ordered the bombing of U.S. citizens.
Garland, who wrote the screenplay in 2020 during the pandemic, said the film is a warning about what could happen here.
“America has an internal concept in its exceptionalism that means it feels it’s immune to some kinds of problems,” Garland told a South by Southwest Film & TV panel. “One of the things history shows us is that nobody is immune. Nobody is exceptional. And if we don’t apply rationality and decency and thoughtfulness to these problems, in any place, it can get out of control.”
The film follows a team of war correspondents as they travel a circuitous route across a war-torn landscape from New York City to Washington, D.C., in an attempt to interview the president before the decisive battle in the capital. Along the way, they experience a suicide bombing as a mob tries to break through police lines to get to water trucks, vigilantes at a gas station torturing looters, a militia executing captured loyalist soldiers, and a refugee camp set up in a football stadium.
But the most chilling scene occurs when the correspondents encounter white militiamen in paramilitary gear dumping bodies in a mass grave.
When the racist, xenophobic militia leader casually executes an Asian journalist and holds the others at gunpoint, one of the reporters pleads, “We’re Americans.”
And then the militia leader (played by Jesse Plemons) casually asks, “Well, what kind of American are you?”
I must admit that the film was jarring for me because in my previous work as an international news editor, I dealt with copy and photos filed by war correspondents, some of whom were killed or wounded in the line of duty. As a reporter, I covered the martial law crackdown in Poland that began in December 1981, and I had to take some risks to get the story out.
The film concludes with fighting raging in Washington, in the streets, and around the Lincoln Memorial, before the secessionists breach the White House with the reporters in tow.
“I do think it’s a warning. I do,” Kirsten Dunst, who stars as a jaded war photographer, told CBS’ “Sunday Morning.” “At the heart of all of this, it’s really about humanity and what happens when people stop treating each other like human beings.”
Political divisions have been growing in the country, spurred by former President Donald Trump and his MAGA cultists. An actual civil war is unlikely, but an August 2022 poll by YouGov/The Economist found that more than two-fifths of Americans believe a civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next 10 years. The figure increases to more than half among self-identified “strong Republicans.”
The film avoids any red state-blue state divisions. Garland says he intentionally chose to make Texas and California the unlikely co-leaders of the secessionist Western Forces leading the attack on the fascist president in Washington.
“It’s saying that two states that have a different political position have said, ‘Our political difference is less important than this,’” Garland told The Hollywood Reporter. “And then the counter to that is if you cannot conceive of that, what you’re saying is that your polarized political position would be more important than a fascist president. Which, when you put it like that, I would suggest, is insane. That’s an insane position to hold.”
And in an ironical coincidence, Putin’s propagandists were pushing a narrative that the U.S. is heading for a civil war back during the Texas border crisis earlier this year. That’s when Texas Gov. Greg Abbott had the state’s National Guard put up razor-wire fencing along the border with Mexico, and the Biden administration got the U.S. Supreme Court to order the U.S. Border Patrol to take down the barriers.
Medvedev called the dispute “another vivid example of U.S. hegemony getting weaker.”
In a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, Medvedev wrote “Establishing a People’s Republic of Texas is getting more and more real.” He added that the situation could lead to “a bloody civil war which cost thousands upon thousands of lives.”
Russian TV host Sergey Mardan jubilantly predicted that the Texas border standoff would lead to “Civil War 2.0.”
“If your enemy is facing a problem, you need to help turn it into a catastrophe,” he said.
And Russian lawmaker Sergey Mironov even offered to help Texas gain independence.
Newsweek reported that Mironov posted on X, “In the conflict between Texas and the United States, I am on the side of the state. At least Texas does not interfere in the affairs of other countries. If necessary, we are ready to help with the independence referendum. And of course, we will recognize the People’s Republic of Texas if there is one. Good luck! We’re with you!”
David Gilbert, who covers disinformation and online extremism for Wired, told the Texas Standard that data shows that there is a full-court press from Russia to spread disinformation about what’s happening at the border between Texas and Mexico.
We’re seeing this narrative that a civil war may break out at any moment in the U.S. pretty much from every angle.
And the analysis shows that everyone from the former president, Dmitry Medvedev, as well as military bloggers, lifestyle influencers and bots … are all pushing this narrative that the U.S. is on the brink of civil war and thus Texas should secede from the United States, and that Russia will be there to support this.
And in a lot of cases, it’s quite obvious what they’re doing. But in other cases it’s much more subtle, and it has the potential to just increase a division that’s already there in the U.S.
Let’s work together to make sure that “Civil War” never becomes a reality.
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